Our Track Record

Spanish Tragedy (No Kyd-ing) (September 28, 2012)

Volatility is Cheap, Spreads are Rich
(September 25, 2012)

And the Winner is -- Russia (September 19, 2012)

The Embassy Attacks and the Oil Price (September 13, 2012)

September 2012 Chartbook - The New Risk Math (September 6, 2012)

Cash is Still King in China (September 4, 2012)

Poison for the Banks is Sauce for the Sovereign (September 3, 2012)

Duration and the Price of Tail Risk (August 29, 2012)

A Play in Which Nothing Happens Three Times (August 24, 2012)

NOW There's a Risk Premium on Oil (August 21, 2012)

Still No Iran Risk Premium on Oil (August 16, 2012)

Liquidity Is King in China (August 16, 2012)

Time to Dip Into Chinese Stocks
(August 10, 2012)

Risk Aversion and Equity Valuation:What Happens When Diversification Disappears? (August 7, 2012)

The Strategic Dimension: Watch Iran
(August 6, 2012)

Watch the Bail-Ins, Not the ECB (August 3, 2012)

The Maginot Line at Nice, Redux
(July 31, 2012)

Snuff Said (July 26, 2012)

Risk Aversion and Equity Valuation: A Sea-Change (July 25, 2012)

The Great European Wealth Transfer
(July 24, 2012)

Now They're Cheap Enough (July 13, 2012)

How to Profit from Europe's Bail-In (July 11, 2012)

Stable and Stagnant (July 9, 2012)

Everybody's Lying
(July 6, 2012)

Egypt's Short Fuse (July 3, 2012)

Measuring Stress in Money Markets
(July 2, 2012)

Re-Set the Shorts (July 2, 2012)

Don't Shoot Until You See the Whites of their Euros (June 26, 2012)

JUNE 2012 CHARTBOOK (June 21, 2012)

The Good, the Bad and the Indifferent (June 20, 2012)

Germany Knows Its Limits (Luckily)
(June 18, 2012)

It's About Who Pays the Wealth Tax (June 15, 2012)

The Election and the Stock Market
(June 15, 2012)

A Bridge Loan Too Far
(June 12, 2012)

Too Big Not To Fail (June 11, 2012)

Liquidity Is Not Enough (June 7, 2012)

Mr. Erdogan's Flying Carpet
(June 5, 2012)

Cash and Gold
(June 1, 2012)

Who Gets Bailed In? (May 30, 2012)

Merkel is Magnificently Right (May 25, 2012)

China Feels Worse Than it Is
(May 21, 2012)

QEIII is Likely (May 18, 2012)

Moving Hedges Deeper Out of the Money (May 17, 2012)

A Quadrifecta of Trouble
(May 16, 2012)

The Secret that JP Morgan Doesn't Want You to Know (May 11, 2012)

This is Your Brain on Deflation
(May 10, 2012)

The Trend Is Not Your Friend, and it Will End
(May 3, 2012)

Today's GDP Report: Political Uncertainty and Profits (Apr 27, 2012)

The Seinfeld Market (About Nothing) (Apr 22, 2012)

Long Miners, Short Consumer (Apr 16, 2012)

APRIL 2012 CHARTBOOK (Apr 12, 2012)

The Dog That Didn't Bank
(Apr 11, 2012)

The Other Mediterranean Crisis (Apr 4, 2012)

Bulletproof But Not Not Oil-Proof (Apr 2, 2012)

Portugal: Flying or Falling With Style? (Mar 27, 2012)

Oil May Kill the Rally (Mar 23, 2012)

End of the Deflation Risk Premium (Mar 14, 2012)

Have Computers Become Sentient in EM Trading? (Mar 9, 2012)

The Uncertain Sinocentric World (Mar 6, 2012)

What Happened to the Entrepreneur? (Mar 1, 2012)

It's Not (Just) About Liquidity (Feb 27, 2012)

Tail Risk Wags the Dog in European Sovereign Debt
(Feb 22, 2012)

Macrostrategy Chartbook - February 2012

Corporate Spreads and Volatility: Time Series vs. Structural Models (Feb 13, 2012)

The World Lacks Returns, Not Safety (Feb 9, 2012)

A Tale of Two Term Yields (Feb 6, 2012)

The Discreet Charm of the Consumer (Feb. 1, 2012)

Those Happy-Go-Lucky Germans (Jan. 30, 2012)

Stocks and the Steepener (Jan. 26,2012)

China Takes First Place As Global Risk Bellwether (Jan. 25,2012)

A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats – But Whose Tide Is It? (Jan. 24,2012)

EM Is All About Miners (Jan. 20,2012)

Glass Steagall and Bank Volatility Convergence (Jan. 18,2012)

Not-so-great expectations for oil (Jan. 13, 2012)


Wile E. Turkey (December 16, 2011) -- Turkey's Wile E. Coyote moment

It's Not the End of the World -- It's Just the End of Italy (December 12, 2011)

How Risky Is Shadow Banking? (December 9, 2011) -- a contrarian argument against panic

Measuring Systemic Risk in Rate Markets (December 7, 2011) -- swap spread analysis

The Contagion Bogeyman (November 30, 2011)

Build a Maginot Line at Nice (November 25, 2011)

The Obama Factor in the Stock Market (November 21, 2011)

Who Cares About Europe? (November 18, 2011)

Flight Forward in Europe (November 14, 2011)

Starve the Dog to Get Rid of the Fleas (November 7, 2011) -- write off Italy

Where's the Risk in American Banks? (November 1, 2011) -- No contagion from Europe

Portfolio Implications of the Recovery in Business Investment (October 27, 2011)

Some Volatilities Are More Equal Than Others (October 24, 2011)

Beware of Greeks Bearing Grifts (October 19, 2011) -- hard landing for southern Europe, soft landing for China

Kinder-Morgan is Magnificently Right (October 17, 2011) -- more on Utilities

Equity Volatility and Bond Spreads Revisited (October 11, 2011) -- forecast of corporate bond outperformance

Time to Worry About Turkish Banks (October 10, 2011) -- early warning of underperformance

A Moment of Clarity (October 4, 2011) -- the turning point for equity markets 

Gold is Down Because Risk Is Down (September 27, 2011)

"It's An Ill Wind that Blows No Good" (September 22, 2011) -- why Utilities outperformed

"You Can Run, but You Can't Hedge" (September 19, 2011)

"Not a Slowdown but a Reshuffle" (September 14, 2011) -- why the world economy will keep growing


"Hopeless But Not Serious" (September 5, 2011) -- southern Europe doesn't matter that much

"The Labor Shortage" (September 2, 2011) -- pockets of strength in the US economy


"Gold and Bonds as Inflation Options" (August 11, 2011) -- bonds as options on inflation

"Collateral Benefits of Bernanke's Bank Bailout" (August 10, 2011) -- good for Utilities

1987, Not 2008 (August 4, 2011) -- why we didn't buy the double-dip story



Oldies but Goodies: Past Research by David Goldman









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